For most of this seemingly endless election year, Republicans have been speaking to the emotions while Democrats were speaking to the reasoning mind. President Biden was calmly reciting the many accomplishments of his administration while Republicans painted government as an overweening threat to our personal freedom and our cherished values. Their affirming audience resonating with that campaign style included (among others) evangelical Christians of a certain focus (abortion), white men who resented upstart women and minorities, and gun lovers (as in “they want to take away our guns!”). The language of fear, anger, and despair were the vehicles to convey empathy for those who felt ignored or even persecuted by a government that catered to women, immigrants, and poor people, and was prone to making rules that everyone had to obey.
Suddenly and with little warning, everything changed in July. Biden out, Harris in. Remarkably, a prosecutor turned attorney general turned senator turned Vice-President, and a woman o color to boot, was a powerful instrument in turning the flailing Democrats into the party of hope, joy, and unity, with the able assistance of a folksy high school teacher and coach turned Congressman turned governor. Republicans, who in the Trump era have been avoiding most serious policy discussions that appeal to the reasoning mind, preferred a message of fear and anger, but were stuck with trying to disown or explain away Project 2025,. This very wordy 900 page document appealed to the left bbrain with a detailed blueprint for a totalitarian Republican administration.
Nods of assent to proposed policies have always taken a back seat to the gut sense of connecting through the emotions when it comes to choosing a president.. Yes, policy matters, but voters know that the problems the next president has to address may be very different from what is going on right now or in the immediate past. So they are looking for clues about he or she thinks and feels and makes decisions. Those clues are found in the message it conveys about whose concerns are going to get the most attention in the next administration. In general, polls always ask about issues, but people vote as much or not more with their gut rather than their brain. Those poll responses about what issues matter most to them are probably the product of rationalizing their feelings than analyzing the costs and benefits of child tax care credits or the price of insulin.
If emotions are the key to successful campaigning (just like advertising), the important question in the 2024 Presidential election is, which emotions does the candidate want to evoke? Does love cast out fear? Does hope triumph over anger or despair? After eight years of an endless campaign by Donald Trump in and out of office that focused on negative emotions, is It possible to turn the tables by making the election about hope, joy and connectedness with one another?
As an economist, we sometimes came across what were called natural experiments, since no one would give us an actual economy to play with. In this country, we learned a lot from states that adopted certain policies while others did not—a higher minimum wage, for example. This election pits two emotion-based campaigns against each other. I do have a preference about candidates, and also about issues, but the idea of two parties offering competing visions of American cast in terms of hope for the future is a lot more appealing to me as a voter than anger or despair.
Results from this more or less natural experiment coming in seven weeks to a polling place near you.
PurpleSage41 