The Risk-Averse Voter

Fifty years ago ,I was roped into teaching risk and insurance, a required course for several majors in the business school at Clemson University.  The insurance part was rather dull, but risk was interesting. Right now, I am thinking about the risks associated with voting strategy in the presidential primaries. The race has come down to Biden, Trump, and Haley.  How should one spend one’s single precious vote so as to contribute to the most desirable outcome in November? And what are the risks involved in making that choice?

In 2010, three friends of mine, all Democrats, voted in the Republican primary to try to select the candidate least likely to win in the general election. (South Carolina splits about 55-60% Republican and the rest Democrat. Voters do occasionally elect a Democrat to a statewide office.)  These three thoughtful women reasoned that South Carolina was a sexist, racist state (true) and that it would never elect an Indian woman.  They voted for Nikki Haley. It is a strategy they did not intend to apply again, but ironically, in this year’s presidential primary, they will be voting for—Nikki Haley.

What’s a voter to do? There are two parts to the strategy.  The first steps to rank your preferences Three are three candidates, which creates six possible preference rankings.

  1. Biden, Haley, Trump
  2. Biden, Trump, Haley
  3. Trump, Haley, Biden
  4. Trump, Biden, Haley
  5. Haley, Biden, Trump
  6. Haley, Trump, Biden

I find options 2 and 4 highly improbable.  Option 3 is easy, vote in the Republican primary for Trump.  No hard choices there. The same is true of options 5 and 6, to vote for Haley in the Republican primary.  If you prefer Haley or Trump to Biden, you vote for the preferred one in the Republican primary.  The challenge of risk assessment is only in option 1, the ordering Biden, Haley, Trump.  That voter is probably a Democrat or a Democrat-leaning independent. In some states, she can vote in either party’s primary.

If Biden is your first choice, there isn’t much need to vote in the Democratic for Biden because he will win anyway. Instead, you express your support by voting in the Republican primary for—which? The least electable one? The least dangerous one? Ah, there’s the rub.  The sense I get from talking to voters is that Haley runs stronger against Biden. but even the remote possibility of re-electing Trump would have much more serious consequences.   

Which one do you think has the lesser chance? Which one could you more easily live with if elected? If you strongly prefer Biden over either Republican, but could definitely rest easier with Haley on the ballot, that suggests you should vote for her.  But beware, she may be more electable—she’s attractive, articulate, and YOUNG. And very conservative. Whereas Trump may be able to energize his base but not much of anyone else.

Some Democrats will just vote for Biden, especially if they live in a state where the primary is limited to registered party members.  (I do have a good friend, a liberal Democrat in Florida, who called me last year to tell me that she is now a registered Republican. I understood her choice. She is not the only one taking that course!)  I live in an open primary state. I can simply walk in and say “I feel like a Democrat” or “I feel like a Republican.” 

Normally both party primaries are held at the same time and in the same place, saving money and poll worker time, but this year the Democratic National Committee gummed up the works, at least in South Carolina.  As a result, I will be working as a poll worker in both primaries in February and casting my own early ballot 20 miles away at the Easley public library. In all three places, I will be among voters chewing on the same dilemma. What are they risking by making this choice, and what might be the consequences?

Or they can stay home.  But as I used to say to some of my libertarian economist colleagues who thought voting was a waste of time, ”If you don’t vote, you lose your right to bitch.” That’s a First Amendment right that has to be earned.

What would you do, and why?

Tyranny of the Minority

I write as we are in the midst of a long and contentious midterm primary season. Perhaps it is a good time to reflect on the way we choose candidates for the November election. Let’s begin with presidential primaries, which are run by the two major parties,. with the collaboration of state governments. Democratic presidential primaries generally allocate delegates proportionally among c candidates, which is why it takes so long for Democrats to settle on a candidate–but does make voters feel that their votes are reflected. Republican presidential primaries are winner take all, even if the winner only gets 25 percent of the vote in a crowded field. This system tends to favor more extreme candidates. The Democrats are not without flaws. They still have too many superdelegates that have too much say in a close contest. But the idea that a candidate could never win majority support of his or her own party’s voters and still get the nomination seems undemocratic with a small d.

State primaries are more diverse. Some have closed primaries, only for voters registered with that party. Others have open primaries that allow independents to vote,or sometimes do not rquire require party registration at all. In states that lean heavily towrd one party, that open primary gives everyone a say in the choice of the canddiates most likely to win in the general election. Open primaries tend to favor more centrist and less extreme candidates.

Many states also required a majority of 50 percent to be nominated, requiring a runoff vote between the two top contenders. if no one succeeds in topping 50 percent. Other; states give the nomination to the highest vote getter–even if, Like Dr. Oz in Pennsylvania this year, that is only one-third of Republican voters. Again, this practice favors less moderate and more extreme candidates. My home state of South Carolina and Georgia both have open primaries and runoffs. The chief drawback to runoffs is the low turnout in primaries generally, which is even lower in a runoff. This year in South Carolina the only statewide race to generate a runoff was the Republican primary for Superintendent of Education. Far fewer voters are likely to participate in the runoff.

There are two recent innovations which may address all of these challenges while increasing participation while lowering the cost of running elections. One is the jungle primary. The other is ranked voting. California was a pioneer in the jungle primary, in which all candidates–Republican, Democratic, Independent, minor party–for a particular office (say, Secretary of State) are on the ballot in a primary open to all registered voters. The top two vote getters advance to the November general election. The two finalists could be from the same parity, different parties, or even independents. The general election replaces the runoff. Variants of this system are in use in Louisiana, Wyoming, and Alaska. This system also favors less extreme candidates, making the possibility of compromise and collaboration in legislative bodies more likely.

Ranked voting is used in many contexts, including some municipal elections and nongovernmental organizations. Its main advantage is to eliminate the need for a runoff if no candidate receives a majority, while still ensuring that the winner is the preferred choice of a majority of voters. Confronted with a ballot with candidates A, B, C , and D, each voter assigns each candidate number from 1 (first choice) to 4 (fourth choice). All the first choice votes are tallied. If candidate B is the first choice of 50 percent or more, she wins. If no one gets 50 percent the second choices are added in, The vote count ends when someone receives a majority.

Many features of our present electoral process, intentionally or otherwise, favor candidates with minority support and perhaps more extreme positions than the mainstream of American voters. I’m pretty happy with the way my state runs elections, even though I seldom get what I want–because I am in a minority. I don’t whine. I don’t’ try to change the rules in order to get the outcome I want. Instead, I work within the system to encourage people to vote and try to persuade them to consider the candidates I support. Isn’t that the kind of playing nicely with others we were supposed to have learned in kindergarten?